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Prediction markets let you trade on real-world outcomes. If you’re right, you profit. If you’re wrong, you lose. Markets aggregate these trades into probabilities that reflect collective belief about the future. Single Market Pn

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The Basics

Every prediction market asks a yes-or-no question:
  • “Will Bitcoin close above $150,000 in 2025?”
  • “Will the Lakers win the championship?”
  • “Will inflation drop below 2% this year?”
You buy shares in YES or NO. Each share pays $1 if you’re correct, $0 if you’re wrong.

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How Prices Work

Share prices represent probability:
  • YES shares at $0.35 = 35% chance the outcome happens
  • NO shares at $0.65 = 65% chance it doesn’t
Prices always sum to $1 because one outcome must occur.

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Why This Matters

When thousands of people trade real money, prices reveal what informed participants actually believe, and not what they say in polls or tweets. Money on the line creates accuracy. Example: You think Bitcoin will hit $150K. YES shares trade at $0.35. You buy 1,000 shares for $350. If you’re right: Each share pays $1. You receive $1,000. Net profit: $650. If you’re wrong: Shares are worthless. You lose $350. If you exit early: Prices update as news breaks. If YES rises to $0.60, you can sell for $600 (profit: $250) without waiting for resolution. That’s prediction markets. Space makes them faster, deeper, and more capital-efficient.
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