
Current Market Probability: 15% (YES shares priced at $0.15)
- You decide to buy 1,000 YES shares at $0.15.
- Without leverage, that costs $150.
- With 5× leverage, you only need to deposit $30 as margin (20% of the position value).
- If the market shifts to 30% ($0.30), your position doubles in value - now worth $300, giving you a $150 profit on just $30 margin (500% ROE).
- But if the odds fall to ≈13.33% (≈$0.13), your position would be liquidated.
